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How to Stop Misreading Homicide Statistics [CityLab.com]

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On Tuesday, The New York Times joined other outlets in addressing a recent spike in homicides in a number of U.S. cities, and in so doing entertained suggestions that Black Lives Matter might be to blame.

"Law enforcement experts say disparate factors are at play in different cities, though no one is claiming to know for sure why murder rates are climbing," theTimes reported. "Some officials say intense national scrutiny of the use of force by the police has made officers less aggressive and emboldened criminals, though many experts dispute that theory."

Of course, it's also possible that an uptick in violence in some U.S. cities does not represent a long-term or widespread phenomenon, and it is highly, highly unlikely that a movement like Black Lives Matter is responsible either way. Crime reporting, like the human perception of crime more generally, often misinterprets spectacularly horrible anecdotes as trends. The Times does mention that the murder rate is still well below stratospheric 1980s and β€˜90s highs, but that should be the lead rather than a caveat.

Still, the fact remains that there are a number of U.S. cities that have experienced an uptick in homicides so far this year. Here’s how to make sense of it all in a more responsible, data-based manner.

 

[For more of this story, written by Daniel Denvir, go to http://www.citylab.com/crime/2...e-statistics/403867/]

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